Updated with EOI data as at August 2026

Next round predictions

Forecast points cut-offs for the next SkillSelect invitation round, for every occupation with round history.

Quick answer

What will the next 189 cut-offs be?

Of the 139 occupations invited in the latest 189 round (4 June 2026), our model expects 29 to need more points next round, 6 to need fewer and 104 to stay the same, if the next round is a similar size. Tested on past rounds at the same stage, forecasts were within 5 points 84% of the time.

Data as at August 2026

What are my chances?Enter your occupation and points to estimate your chance of an invitation in the next round.Open invite checker

Consistently invited at low points

Occupations invited in each of the last 4 rounds with a cut-off of 70 points or under. Lines show the lowest points invited in each round; bars show how many EOIs were invited.

Occupation	cut-off (Nov 24 → Aug 25 → Nov 25 → June 26)	invited per round
Carpenter331212	65 · 65 · 65 · 65	~648
Electrician (General)341111	65 · 65 · 65 · 65	~109
Wall and Floor Tiler333411	65 · 65 · 65 · 65	~87
Bricklayer331111	65 · 65 · 65 · 65	~82
Solid Plasterer333212	70 · 65 · 65 · 65	~44
Plumber (General)334111	65 · 65 · 65 · 65	~29
Carpenter and Joiner331211	65 · 65 · 65 · 65	~27
Airconditioning and Mechanical Services Plumber334112	70 · 65 · 65 · 65	~23

Most invitations in the latest round

EOIs shown as invited in SkillSelect after the 4 June 2026 round, by occupation, with the change from the round before.

Registered Nurses nec905−338 vs previous round
Carpenter594−108 vs previous round
Secondary School Teacher340−38 vs previous round
Construction Project Manager332+243 vs previous round
Social Worker260−55 vs previous round
General Practitioner245−14 vs previous round
Registered Nurse (Aged Care)231−135 vs previous round
Solicitor230+20 vs previous round
Management Consultant188+63 vs previous round
Medical Practitioners nec175+2 vs previous round
Registered Nurse (Critical Care and Emergency)128−63 vs previous round
Registered Nurse (Medical)126−48 vs previous round
Agricultural Consultant109+51 vs previous round
Physiotherapist107−77 vs previous round
Environmental Consultant102−3 vs previous round

Rising and falling occupations

Invitations in program year 2025-26 compared with 2024-25, adding up the rounds in each year. Only occupations with data in both years are shown.

↑ Rising

Registered Nurses nec+2,238756 → 2,994
Carpenter+1,531535 → 2,066
Registered Nurse (Aged Care)+640201 → 841
General Practitioner+528280 → 808
Secondary School Teacher+501276 → 777
Solicitor+41792 → 509
Social Worker+416236 → 652
Medical Practitioners nec+382210 → 592

↓ Falling

Civil Engineering Draftsperson−9701,114 → 144
Architect−564734 → 170
Construction Project Manager−381802 → 421
Civil Engineering Technician−242300 → 58
Electronics Engineer−167191 → 24
Painting Trades Worker−107484 → 377
Telecommunications Engineer−79104 → 25
Welder (First Class)−3083 → 53

“Invitations” are EOIs SkillSelect shows as invited in the round month. The true number is somewhat higher because some people lodge their visa straight away.

189 forecast by occupation

Forecast = likely lowest points invited next round. “In next round” = how likely the occupation is to be invited at all.

139 of 207 occupations


Registered Nurses nec254499	75June 26	80 ↑likely 75–90	Likely	956
Carpenter331212	65June 26	65likely 65–75	Likely	817
Construction Project Manager133111	80June 26	80likely 75–90	Likely	418
Secondary School Teacher241411	75June 26	80 ↑likely 75–90	Likely	370
Electronics Engineer233411	95June 26	95likely 90–105	Likely	312
Registered Nurse (Aged Care)254412	75June 26	80 ↑likely 75–90	Likely	244
Solicitor271311	80June 26	80likely 75–90	Likely	240
Social Worker272511	75June 26	80 ↑likely 75–90	Likely	224
General Practitioner253111	75June 26	80 ↑likely 75–90	Likely	216
Architect232111	85June 26	85likely 80–95	Likely	183
Electrician (General)341111	65June 26	65likely 65–75	Likely	165
Medical Practitioners nec253999	75June 26	80 ↑likely 75–90	Likely	165
Agricultural Consultant234111	80June 26	80likely 75–90	Likely	145
Statistician224113	90June 26	90likely 85–100	Likely	140
Bricklayer331111	65June 26	65likely 65–75	Likely	133
Physiotherapist252511	75June 26	80 ↑likely 75–90	Likely	130
Environmental Consultant234312	80June 26	80likely 75–90	Likely	129
Food Technologist234212	85June 26	85likely 80–95	Likely	129
Registered Nurse (Critical Care and Emergency)254415	75June 26	80 ↑likely 75–90	Likely	124
Registered Nurse (Medical)254418	75June 26	80 ↑likely 75–90	Likely	122
Management Consultant224711	80June 26	85 ↑likely 80–95	Likely	120
Telecommunications Engineer263311	95June 26	90 ↓likely 85–100	Likely	114
Mining Engineer (excluding Petroleum)233611	80June 26	80likely 75–90	Likely	95
Chemist234211	85June 26	85likely 80–95	Likely	94
Biotechnologist234514	95June 26	90 ↓likely 85–100	Likely	87

491 family sponsored forecast

Fewer occupations and rounds, so treat these forecasts with more caution. Latest 491 family round: 13 November 2025.

36 of 119 occupations


Early Childhood (Pre-primary School) Teacher241111	90Nov 25	100 ↑likely 95–110	Likely	50
Carpenter and Joiner331211	95Nov 25	95likely 90–105	Likely	0
Medical Practitioners nec253999	90Nov 25	90likely 85–100	Likely	0
Special Needs Teacher241511	90Nov 25	90likely 85–100	Likely	10
General Practitioner253111	85Nov 25	85likely 80–95	Likely	10
Medical Diagnostic Radiographer251211	85Nov 25	85likely 80–95	Likely	30
Optometrist251411	85Nov 25	85likely 80–95	Likely	10
Radiation Oncologist253918	85Nov 25	85likely 80–95	Likely	0
Registered Nurses nec254499	75Nov 25	85 ↑likely 80–95	Likely	76
Secondary School Teacher241411	85Nov 25	85likely 80–95	Likely	44
Social Worker272511	85Nov 25	85likely 80–95	Likely	45
Speech Pathologist252712	85Nov 25	85likely 80–95	Likely	10
Audiologist252711	80Nov 25	80likely 75–90	Likely	50
Cardiologist253312	80Nov 25	80likely 75–90	Likely	20
Gasfitter334114	80Nov 25	80likely 75–90	Likely	0
Painting Trades Worker332211	70Nov 25	80 ↑likely 75–90	Likely	40
Registered Nurse (Aged Care)254412	80Nov 25	80likely 75–90	Likely	50
Registered Nurse (Community Health)254414	80Nov 25	80likely 75–90	Likely	20
Registered Nurse (Developmental Disability)254416	80Nov 25	80likely 75–90	Likely	0
Registered Nurse (Mental Health)254422	80Nov 25	80likely 75–90	Likely	10
Registered Nurse (Perioperative)254423	80Nov 25	80likely 75–90	Likely	40
Registered Nurse (Surgical)254424	80Nov 25	80likely 75–90	Likely	30
Carpenter331212	65Nov 25	75 ↑likely 70–85	Likely	60
Midwife254111	75Nov 25	75likely 70–85	Likely	20
Physiotherapist252511	75Nov 25	75likely 70–85	Likely	60

How the model works

For each occupation, SkillSelect shows how many EOIs were invited in each round. We take the median of the last two rounds as that occupation's usual number of invitations.
The forecast cut-off is the points level where at least that many EOIs sit at or above it in today's queue. Soon after a round, when the queue hasn't refilled, we assume only 75% of the usual invitations reach today's queue. Forecasts never move more than 10 points from the last cut-off.
We compare forecasts with what actually happened in past rounds. That error pattern gives the “likely” range. The invite checker adds your place in the queue (more points, or the same points with an earlier date of effect) to estimate timing and chance.
Occupations missing from the latest round are much less likely to be in the next one (about 15% historically, compared with about 85% for occupations that were invited).

Tested accuracy

We re-ran the model for every occupation in 4 past rounds (November 2024 to June 2026), using only the data that existed at the time, and compared forecasts with the real cut-offs.

Forecast made	Exact	Within 5 points	Average error
1 month after a round	46%	81%	4.4 pts
2 months after a round (now)	39%	84%	4.3 pts
3 months after a round	37%	79%	4.8 pts
4 months after a round	35%	83%	4.5 pts
the month before a round	49%	90%	3.2 pts

Limits

The model assumes the next round treats each occupation like the last one. A much bigger or smaller round, new occupation ceilings or new government priorities (for example preferences for onshore applicants) can change results.
SkillSelect hides groups under 20 EOIs; we count those as 10.
190 and 491 state nominations don't have published cut-offs, so they aren't forecast here. See state nominations.
This is general information, not migration advice.

Frequently asked questions

How accurate are these predictions?

We tested the model on past rounds (November 2024 to June 2026) using only data available at the time. With data from 2 months after a round, as now, forecasts were exactly right 39% of the time and within 5 points 84% of the time. Forecasts made the month before a round are more accurate (within 5 points 90% of the time).

When is the next invitation round?

Home Affairs doesn't announce round dates in advance. The latest 189 round was on 4 June 2026. These forecasts update automatically when new rounds and EOI data are published.

Can I get a prediction for my own points?

Yes. Use the invite checker to enter your occupation, points and optional EOI date of effect.

Is this an AI prediction?

The forecasts come from a statistical model built on official round results and SkillSelect EOI data, which we can test against past rounds. We use AI to help write news summaries, not to invent numbers.